IoD Day 3 – Data System Simulation using System Dynamics and impact on Predictive Analytics for Policy Analysis

Complex systems need to be simulated due to un-intended consequences at the tertiary level
e.g. Fukashima radioactivity is now approaching West Coast of USAS and the ecosystem is being affected by serious radioactivity events in the sea fauna.
Uses the iThink programme as a systems dynamics capability to test the consequences of policy decisions
Eg Boston urban decay with failing policies Key issue was amount of available land for new business which lead to a decision to demolish underemployed housing.
Mortgage Crisis
what happens when low interest rates rise? see the causal loop diagram, highly rigorous discipline.
Emergency Situations
Retail Demand – bakery
Use models to guide search analytics leading to better models and strategy options, hence integration of system dynamics models into the analytics processes.
XMILE standards being developed
Regular Webinars for Use Cases
It is critical to validate and verify the Systems Dynamics models before using in an advisory mode.
Major benefit of this approach is that statistics only produce correlations of the past. nThese models can provide ann understanding of the impact of causality and interrelationships and can also be used to provide explanations.
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